Distribution patterns of the Baraba buzzing grasshopper Angaracris barabensis (Pallas) (Orthoptera: Acrididae)
A. I. Pashkova,
V. V. Molodtsov,
S. Yu. Storozhenko,
N. S. Baturina,
K. V. Popova,
O. V. Yefremova,
M. G. Sergeev https://doi.org/10.18470/1992-1098-2024-4-7
Abstract
Aim. Angaracris barabensis is widely distributed across the Asian grasslands. It is often qualified as one of the important pests. The aim of the paper is to estimate possible shifts of its distribution relative to global warming. The geographic coordinates of 384 localities were determined for the species. Two different approaches to species distribution modelling (maximum entropy and multidimensional ellipsoid envelope) were used. The general patterns of distribution were described. Several models of the species distribution were generated and compared. The main factors of its distribution are revealed. Ecological modelling predicts opportunity of possible northward shifts of the species range in Central and East Siberia and persistence of areas of possible harmfulness in South Siberia, Mongolia and North China. Our predictions show two opposite trends. In the western and southeastern parts of the species range, suitability of conditions will decrease. In the central and north‐eastern parts, the suitability will remain almost the same or even increase. The comparative analysis shows there are no evident contemporary shifts of range boundaries of A. barabensis associated with global warming per se or this tendency is extremely weak. However, the distribution of suitable conditions can change significantly during the next several decades.
Keywords
Supporting agencies: The study was financially supported by the grant of the Russian Science Foundation 22‐66‐00031 (https://rscf.ru/en/project/22‐66‐00031).
About the Authors
A. I. Pashkova
Novosibirsk State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alisa I. Pashkova
Novosibirsk
V. V. Molodtsov
Novosibirsk State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir V. Molodtsov
Novosibirsk
S. Yu. Storozhenko
Federal Scientific Center of the East Asia Terrestrial Biodiversity, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey Yu. Storozhenko
Vladivostok
N. S. Baturina
Novosibirsk State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Natalya S. Baturina
Novosibirsk
K. V. Popova
Novosibirsk State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Kristina V. Popova
Novosibirsk
O. V. Yefremova
Novosibirsk State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Oxana V. Yefremova
Novosibirsk
M. G. Sergeev
Novosibirsk State University;
Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Michael G. Sergeev, Doctor of Biological Sciences, Department of General Biology and Ecology and Laboratory of Biogeomodelling and Ecoinformatics
1, Pirogova Street, Novosibirsk, 630090. Tel. +73833634194
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For citations:
Pashkova A.I., Molodtsov V.V., Storozhenko S.Yu., Baturina N.S., Popova K.V., Yefremova O.V., Sergeev M.G. Distribution patterns of the Baraba buzzing grasshopper Angaracris barabensis (Pallas) (Orthoptera: Acrididae). South of Russia: ecology, development. 2024;19(4):75-89. https://doi.org/10.18470/1992-1098-2024-4-7
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