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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecodag</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Юг России: экология, развитие</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>South of Russia: ecology, development</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1992-1098</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2413-0958</issn><publisher><publisher-name>State Institute of Applied Ecology of the Republic of Dagestan</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18470/1992-1098-2017-2-203-212</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecodag-939</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>МЕДИЦИНСКАЯ ЭКОЛОГИЯ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>MEDICAL ECOLOGY</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>РАЗРАБОТКА АЛГОРИТМА ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ РИСКОВ СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ НАПРЯЖЕННОСТИ У НАСЕЛЕНИЯ ОТДЕЛЬНЫХ РЕГИОНОВ РОССИИ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOCIAL TENSION RISK PREDICTING ALGORITHM IN THE POPULATION OF CERTAIN REGIONS OF RUSSIA</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Мулик</surname><given-names>А. Б.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Mulik</surname><given-names>A. B.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д.б.н., профессор, руководитель научно-образовательного центра физиологии гомеостаза,</p><p>пр. Университетский, 100, г. Волгоград, 400062</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Doctor of Biological Sciences, Professor, Head of the Research and Education Center of Physiology Homeostasis,</p><p>pr. University 100, Volgograd, 400062</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">mulikab@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кочуров</surname><given-names>Б. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kochurov</surname><given-names>B. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д.г.н., профессор, ведущий научный сотрудник лаборатории геоэкологии, Институт естественных наук,</p><p>Волгоград </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Doctor of Geography Sciences, Professor, senior researcher at the Laboratory of Geoecology, Institute of Natural Sciences,</p><p>Volgograd</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Бодрова</surname><given-names>В. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Bodrova</surname><given-names>V. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>старший преподаватель кафедры географии и картографии, Институт естественных наук,</p><p>Волгоград</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>senior lecturer of the Department of Geography and Cartography, Institute of Natural Sciences,</p><p>Volgograd</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">bodrova0307@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Антонов</surname><given-names>Г. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Antonov</surname><given-names>G. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>к.с.н., доцент кафедры социологии, Институт истории, международных отношений и социальных технологий,</p><p>Волгоград</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>candidate of Sociological Sciences, Associate Professor of Sociology, Institute of History, International Relations and Social Technologies,</p><p>Volgograd</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Улесикова</surname><given-names>И. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ulesikova</surname><given-names>I. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>лаборант лаборатории психофизиологии, Институт естественных наук, </p><p>Волгоград</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>aboratorian of the Laboratory of Psychophysiology, Institute of Natural Sciences,</p><p>Volgograd</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ulesikovairina@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Назаров</surname><given-names>Н. О.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Nazarov</surname><given-names>N. O.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>аспирант лаборатории психофизиологии, Институт естественных наук,</p><p>Волгоград</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>postgraduate student of the Laboratory of Psychophysiology, Institute of Natural Sciences,</p><p>Volgograd</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">naznik86@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шатыр</surname><given-names>Ю. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shatyr</surname><given-names>Yu. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>к.б.н., доцент, старший научный сотрудник лаборатории психофизиологии, Институт естественных наук,</p><p>Волгоград</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>candidate of biological sciences, associate professor, senior researcher at the Laboratory of Psychophysiology, Institute of Natural Sciences,</p><p>Volgograd</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Волгоградский государственный университет</institution></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Volgograd State University</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2017</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>09</day><month>07</month><year>2017</year></pub-date><volume>12</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>203</fpage><lpage>212</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Мулик А.Б., Кочуров Б.И., Бодрова В.Н., Антонов Г.В., Улесикова И.В., Назаров Н.О., Шатыр Ю.А., 2017</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2017</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Мулик А.Б., Кочуров Б.И., Бодрова В.Н., Антонов Г.В., Улесикова И.В., Назаров Н.О., Шатыр Ю.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Mulik A.B., Kochurov B.I., Bodrova V.N., Antonov G.V., Ulesikova I.V., Nazarov N.O., Shatyr Y.A.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://ecodag.elpub.ru/ugro/article/view/939">https://ecodag.elpub.ru/ugro/article/view/939</self-uri><abstract><p>Целью исследования являлась разработка подходов к прогнозированию риска социальной напряженности применительно к населению регионов Российской Федерации.</p><sec><title>Методы</title><p>Методы. Теоретические исследования базировались на анализе картографического материала из Национального атласа России. Использование геоинформационных технологий обеспечило моделирование средовой нагрузки на территории отдельных регионов РФ. Экспериментальные исследования выполнялись посредством стандартных методов психофизиологического тестирования с участием 336 человек 18-23-летнего возраста обоего пола.</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты. В качестве основополагающего биологически значимого фактора природной среды, дифференцирующего территорию РФ на районы с дискретно проявляемыми физическими воздействиями, была определена суммарная солнечная радиация. Последующее выделение модельных регионов (Республика Крым, Ростовская и Саратовская области) основывалось на принципе минимизации территориальных различий сопутствующих факторов средового давления на человека. Экспериментальные исследования позволили выявить устойчивые системные взаимосвязи фенотипических характеристик и склонности человека к нервно-психическому напряжению. Риск формирования социальной напряженности для населения исследуемой территории прогнозируется при условии нахождения более двух третей представителей выборочной совокупности в границах высокого уровня общей неспецифической реактивности организма.</p></sec><sec><title>Заключение</title><p>Заключение. Обоснована целесообразность использования значений северной широты в качестве интегрального показателя дифференциации территорий по специфике выраженности физических факторов средового воздействия на жизнедеятельность человека. Определена возможность применения уровня общей неспецифической реактивности организма как маркерного фенотипического признака риска развития социального напряжения. Разработан алгоритм прогнозирования риска развития социального напряжения у населения, компактно проживающего на отдельных территориях Российской Федерации. </p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Aim</title><p>Aim. The aim of the study was development of approaches to predict the risk of social tension for population of the Russian Federation regions.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Methods. Theoretical studies based on the analysis of cartographic material from the National Atlas of Russia. The use of geo-information technologies has provided modeling of environmental load in the territory of certain regions of Russia. Experimental studies were performed using standard methods of psycho-physiological testing involving 336 persons 18-23 years old of both sexes.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. As a fundamental biologically significant factor of the environment, differentiating the Russian Federation territory to areas with discrete actual physical effects, total solar radiation was determined. The subsequent allocation of model regions (Republic of Crimea, Rostov and Saratov regions) based on the principle of minimizing regional differences associated factors of environmental pressure per person. Experimental studies have revealed persistent systemic relationships of phenotypic characteristics and tendency of person to neuropsychic tension. The risk of social tension for the study area population is predicted on the condition of finding more than two thirds of the representatives of sample within the borders of a high level of general non-specific reactivity of an organism.</p></sec><sec><title>Main conclusions</title><p>Main conclusions. The expediency of using the northern latitude as an integral index of differentiation of areas on the specifics of the severity of the physical factors of environmental impact on human activity is justified. The possibility of the application for the level of general nonspecific reactivity of an organism as a phenotypic trait marker of social tension risk is identified. An algorithm for predicting the risk of social tension among the population, compactly living in certain territories of the Russian Federation is designed. </p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>природные факторы среды</kwd><kwd>психическая напряженность</kwd><kwd>социальная напряженность</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование социальной напряженности</kwd><kwd>уровень общей неспецифической реактивности организма человека</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>natural environmental factors</kwd><kwd>mental stress</kwd><kwd>social tension</kwd><kwd>forecasting of social tension</kwd><kwd>the level of general non-specific reactivity of the human organism</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">РФФИ</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Foster S., Endler A. 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