ecodagЮг России: экология, развитиеSouth of Russia: ecology, development1992-10982413-0958State Institute of Applied Ecology of the Republic of Dagestan10.18470/1992-1098-2014-1-17-25ecodag-5Research ArticleОБЩИЕ ВОПРОСЫGENERAL PROBLEMSДЕТЕРМИНИРОВАННЫЙ ХАРАКТЕР ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ УРОВНЯ КАСПИЙСКОГО МОРЯ И ЕГО КОЛИЧЕСТВЕННЫЕ ПАРАМЕТРЫDETERMINISTIC CHARACTER OF CHANGES OF THE CASPIAN SEA LEVEL AND ITS QUANTITATIVE PARAMETERSМагомедбековУ. Г.MagomedbekovU. G.

ул. М. Гаджиева, 43а, Махачкала, Республика Дагестан 367002 Россия

M. Gadzhiev str., 43a, Makhachkala, Republic of Dagestan 367002 Russia

Дагестанский государственный университетDagestan State University201421102014911725Copyright © Магомедбеков У.Г., 20142014Магомедбеков У.Г.Magomedbekov U.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ecodag.elpub.ru/ugro/article/view/5

Приведены результаты по определению параметров динамики процесса изменения уровня Каспийского моря. На основе анализа временного ряда по изменению уровня водоема за 1931–2009 годы определены величины размерностей фазового пространства и аттрактора, вычислены показатели Ляпунова и оценена величина энтропии Колмогорова – Синая. Сделано заключение о детерминированном характере протекающих процессов и проявлении динамического хаоса.

Abstract

Abstract. The results of determination of parameters of dynamics of Caspian Sea level changes were studied. We determined quantities and dimensions of the phase space and the attractor, we calculated exponents of Lyapunov and assessed value of Kolmogorov – Sinai entropy based on analysis of time series by the change in the reservoir for 1931–2009.

Introduction

Introduction. When interpreting the data on oscillatory phenomena an application of the theory of self-organization approaches becomes interesting, as it allows to set in a certain extent the behavior and evolution of the system regardless the nature of occurring in them processes.

Methods

Methods. During the preparation of article we applied a complex approach of nonlinear dynamics, consisting of the use of the discrete Fourier transform, the reconstruction of the dynamics of the time series with the construction of phase portraits and determining the dimensions of the phase space and attractor, calculation of Lyapunov exponents and Kolmogorov – Sinai entropy.

Results

Results. It is found that Fourier spectrum–discrete; attractor dimension is expressed in non-integer number, and it is more than three; dimension of the phase space is equal to five; values of Lyapunov exponents correspond to: λ1> 0, λ2 = 0, λ3< 0; KS-entropy value is greater than zero (h = 0,018 ± 0,002); characteristic time that can be predicted by changes in the level corresponding to 58 - 60 days.

Conclusion

Conclusion. The analysis conducted by methods of nonlinear dynamics shows deterministic character of Caspian Sea level changes for 1931–2009 and realization of dynamic chaos.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.