ecodagЮг России: экология, развитиеSouth of Russia: ecology, development1992-10982413-0958State Institute of Applied Ecology of the Republic of Dagestan10.18470/1992-1098-2025-4-26ecodag-3593Research ArticleОБЩИЕ ВОПРОСЫGENERAL PROBLEMSПравовая и экономическая основа западных санкций и их влияние на продовольственную безопасность и независимость страныLegal and Economic Basis of Western Sanctions and their Impact on Food Security and Russian National Independencehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4808-906XБулетоваН. Е.BuletovaN. E.

Наталья Е. Булетова, доктор экономических наук, профессор кафедры государственного регулирования экономики

119606, г. Москва, проспект Вернадского, 84, строение 1.

Тел. +79033702216 

Natalia E. Buletova, Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Department of State Regulation of the Economy

84 bld.1 Prospekt Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119606.

Tel. +79033702216 

buletova-ne@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0962-3901ГоломанчукЭ. В.GolomanchukE. V.

Эйда В. Голоманчук

Волгоград

Eida V. Golomanchuk

Volgograd

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8763-6284ПолозковМ. Г.PolozkovM. G.

Михаил Г. Полозков

Москва

Mikhail G. Polozkov

Moscow

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1555-9360СкачковаС. А.SkachkovaS. A.

Светлана А. Скачкова

Санкт‐Петербург

Svetlana A. Skachkova

St. Petersburg

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4860-0956СтепановаЕ. В.StepanovaE. V.

Екатерина В. Степанова

Волгоград

Ekaterina V. Stepanova

Volgograd

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3582-4590ТимофееваГ. В.TimofeyevaG. V.

Галина В. Тимофеева

Москва

Galina V. Timofeyeva

Moscow

https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4854-4079ЯббароваР. И.YabbarovaR. I.

Рашида И. Яббарова

Москва

Rashida I. Yabbarova

Moscow

Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ; Санкт‐Петербургский научный центр Российской академии наукRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; St. Petersburg Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of SciencesВолгоградский институт управления – филиал РАНХиГСVolgograd Institute of Management, branch of RANEPAРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationСанкт‐Петербургский научный центр Российской академии наукSt. Petersburg Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences202531012026204278288Copyright © Булетова Н.Е., Голоманчук Э.В., Полозков М.Г., Скачкова С.А., Степанова Е.В., Тимофеева Г.В., Яббарова Р.И., 20262026Булетова Н.Е., Голоманчук Э.В., Полозков М.Г., Скачкова С.А., Степанова Е.В., Тимофеева Г.В., Яббарова Р.И.Buletova N.E., Golomanchuk E.V., Polozkov M.G., Skachkova S.A., Stepanova E.V., Timofeyeva G.V., Yabbarova R.I.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ecodag.elpub.ru/ugro/article/view/3593

Цель: состоит в проработке алгоритма диагностики последствий влияния санкций на состояние и перспективы развития сельского хозяйства в РФ с учетом приоритетов независимости и импортозамещения, реализуемых в государственной политике. Локальность сельского хозяйства и возможность формировать продовольственную безопасность и независимость собственными ресурсами и мощностями или за счет внешнеэкономической деятельности определяют необходимость выстраивания алгоритма диагностики состава, ожидаемых целей и возможных последствий западных санкций для АПК России. 

Использовались статистические базы данных по состоянию сельского хозяйства ряда субъектов РФ для апробации авторских методов и подходов. В ходе исследования были использованы методы статистического анализа, индикативного планирования, диагностики уровня безопасности, моделирование с помощью алгоритма. 

Результаты исследования включают: правовую идентификацию природы и ожидаемых целей западных санкций в области продовольственной безопасности и независимости государства; разработку методики оценки влияния санкций на состояние сельскохозяйственной деятельности и ее независимость от этих мер; предложения по совершенствованию подходов к планированию и обеспечению независимости регионов от негативных последствий западных санкций как части национального продовольственного рынка.

В работе представлены результаты разработки методики оценки влияния санкций на развитие сельского хозяйства РФ, в основе которой заложена функция продовольственной независимости по продовольственным товарам мета‐группы (в соответствии с Доктриной продовольственное безопасности РФ); предложена оригинальная система показателей диагностики уровня санкционной зависимости/независимости сельского хозяйства от микро‐ до макроуровня; проведенная апробация оригинальной методики оценки влияния санкций на развития сельского хозяйства позволила получить результаты оценки на региональном и национальном уровне реализации сельскохозяйственной деятельности по отдельным продовольственным товарам мета‐группы и по их совокупности.

Aim. Develop an algorithm to diagnose the consequences of Western sanctions on Russian agricultural development, considering state priorities for independence and import substitution. The need stems from agriculture's localization and the imperative to ensure food security/national independence via domestic resources or trade.

Utilized statistical databases on agriculture in Russian regions. Employed statistical analysis, indicative planning, security diagnostics, and algorithmbased modeling.

The outcomes include legal identification of the nature and expected goals of Western sanctions in the sphere of food security and national independence; a methodology for assessing sanctions' impact on agricultural activity and its independence; proposals to improve planning for regional independence from sanctions' negative effects within national food market.

Presents the results of developing a methodology for assessing the impact of sanctions on the development of Russian agriculture, based on the function of food independence for meta‐group food products (Russian Food Security Doctrine). An original system of indicators for diagnosing the level of agricultural dependence/independence on sanctions was proposed, spanning from micro to macro levels. Testing the original methodology for assessing the sanctions impact on agricultural development yielded evaluation results at both regional and national levels, covering individual meta‐group food products and their aggregate.

функция продовольственной независимостиуровень санкционной независимостичувствительности (эластичности) сельского хозяйства к санкцияммультипликатор продовольственной независимостиFood independence functionlevel of sanctions independenceagricultural sensitivity (elasticity) of sanctionsfood independence multiplierReferencesLyon T.P., Montgomery A.W. The Means and End of Greenwash. Organization & Environment, 2015, vol. 28(2), pp. 223–249.DOI: 10.1177/1086026615575332Lyon T.P., Montgomery A.W. The Means and End of Greenwash. Organization & Environment, 2015, vol. 28(2), pp. 223–249.DOI: 10.1177/1086026615575332Clapp J., Dauvergne P.Paths to a Green World: The Political Economy of the Global Environment". MIT Press. 2011. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/5265.001.0001Clapp J., Dauvergne P.Paths to a Green World: The Political Economy of the Global Environment". 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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.