ecodagЮг России: экология, развитиеSouth of Russia: ecology, development1992-10982413-0958State Institute of Applied Ecology of the Republic of Dagestan10.18470/1992-1098-2024-4-7ecodag-3301Research ArticleЭНТОМОЛОГИЯENTOMOLOGYЗакономерности распространения барабинской трещотки Angaracris barabensis (Pallas) (Orthoptera: Acrididae)Distribution patterns of the Baraba buzzing grasshopper Angaracris barabensis (Pallas) (Orthoptera: Acrididae)https://orcid.org/0009-0007-7698-3217ПашковаА. И.PashkovaA. I.

Алиса И. Пашкова

Новосибирск

Alisa I. Pashkova

Novosibirsk

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9169-9934МолодцовВ. В.MolodtsovV. V.

Владимир В. Молодцов

Новосибирск

Vladimir V. Molodtsov

Novosibirsk

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9269-4043СтороженкоС. Ю.StorozhenkoS. Yu.

Сергей Ю. Стороженко

Владивосток

Sergey Yu. Storozhenko

Vladivostok

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9321-8364БатуринаН. С.BaturinaN. S.

Наталья С. Батурина

Новосибирск

Natalya S. Baturina

Novosibirsk

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2705-6325ПоповаК. В.PopovaK. V.

Кристина В. Попова

Новосибирск

Kristina V. Popova

Novosibirsk

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1562-5252ЕфремоваО. В.YefremovaO. V.

Оксана В. Ефремова

Новосибирск

Oxana V. Yefremova

Novosibirsk

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2179-0921СергеевМ. Г.SergeevM. G.

Михаил Г. Сергеев, доктор биологических наук, профессор, кафедра общей биологии и экологии и лаборатория биогеомоделирования и экоинформатики

630090, г. Новосибирск, ул. Пирогова, 1. Тел. +73833634194

Michael G. Sergeev, Doctor of Biological Sciences, Department of General Biology and Ecology and Laboratory of Biogeomodelling and Ecoinformatics

1, Pirogova Street, Novosibirsk, 630090. Tel. +73833634194

mgsergeev@mail.comНовосибирский государственный университетРоссияNovosibirsk State UniversityRussian FederationФедеральный научный центр биоразнообразия наземной биоты Восточной Азии ДВО РАНРоссияFederal Scientific Center of the East Asia Terrestrial Biodiversity, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationНовосибирский государственный университет; Институт систематики и экологии животных СО РАНРоссияNovosibirsk State University; Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation2024220120251947589Copyright © Пашкова А.И., Молодцов В.В., Стороженко С.Ю., Батурина Н.С., Попова К.В., Ефремова О.В., Сергеев М.Г., 20252025Пашкова А.И., Молодцов В.В., Стороженко С.Ю., Батурина Н.С., Попова К.В., Ефремова О.В., Сергеев М.Г.Pashkova A.I., Molodtsov V.V., Storozhenko S.Y., Baturina N.S., Popova K.V., Yefremova O.V., Sergeev M.G.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ecodag.elpub.ru/ugro/article/view/3301

Цель. Angaracris barabensis — вид, широко распространенный в злаковниках Азии. Часто он считается одним из важнейших вредителей. Цель статьи – оценить возможные изменения его распространения в условиях глобального потепления. Определены географические координаты 384 точек находок вида. Использованы два разных подхода к моделированию распространения (максимальной энтропии и эллипсоидальных многомерных экологических ниш). Описаны общие закономерности распространения. Сгенерированы и сопоставлены несколько моделей распределения вида. Выявлены основные факторы его распространения. Экологическое моделирование демонстрирует возможность сдвига его ареала на север в Средней и Восточной Сибири и сохранение районов возможной вредоносности вида на юге Сибири, в Монголии и Северном Китае. Выявлены два противоположных тренда. В западной и юго‐западной частях ареала вида вероятно снижение пригодности местообитаний. В центральной и северо‐восточной частях уровни пригодности либо не изменятся, либо возрастут. Сравнительный анализ пoказывает отсутствие очевидных смещений границ ареала A. barabensis, которые можно было бы связать с глобальным потеплением как таковым либо этот тренд почти не прослеживается. Вместе с тем распределение подходящих для вида условий может существенно изменится в ближайшие десятилетия.

Aim. Angaracris barabensis is widely distributed across the Asian grasslands. It is often qualified as one of the important pests. The aim of the paper is to estimate possible shifts of its distribution relative to global warming. The geographic coordinates of 384 localities were determined for the species. Two different approaches to species distribution modelling (maximum entropy and multidimensional ellipsoid envelope) were used. The general patterns of distribution were described. Several models of the species distribution were generated and compared. The main factors of its distribution are revealed. Ecological modelling predicts opportunity of possible northward shifts of the species range in Central and East Siberia and persistence of areas of possible harmfulness in South Siberia, Mongolia and North China. Our predictions show two opposite trends. In the western and southeastern parts of the species range, suitability of conditions will decrease. In the central and north‐eastern parts, the suitability will remain almost the same or even increase. The comparative analysis shows there are no evident contemporary shifts of range boundaries of A. barabensis associated with global warming per se or this tendency is extremely weak. However, the distribution of suitable conditions can change significantly during the next several decades.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.