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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ecodag</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Юг России: экология, развитие</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>South of Russia: ecology, development</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1992-1098</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2413-0958</issn><publisher><publisher-name>State Institute of Applied Ecology of the Republic of Dagestan</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18470/1992-1098-2019-3-101-110</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">ecodag-1706</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>МЕТОДЫ ЭКОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЙ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH METHODS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Математические методы в племенной оценке мелкого  рогатого скота</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Mathematical methods in the breeding evaluation of small  horned ruminants</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Катков</surname><given-names>К. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Katkov</surname><given-names>K. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6090-4453</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Скорых</surname><given-names>Л. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Skorykh</surname><given-names>L. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>отдел овцеводства</p><p>356241  Россия, Ставропольский край, г. Михайловск, ул. Никонова, 49</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Department of Sheep  Breeding</p><p>49 Mikhailovsk St, Mikhailovsk, Russia 356241</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">smu.sniizhk@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Паштецкий</surname><given-names>В. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pashtetsky</surname><given-names>V. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Остапчук</surname><given-names>П. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ostapchuk</surname><given-names>P. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Куевда</surname><given-names>Т. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kuevda</surname><given-names>T. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Северо‐Кавказский Федеральный научный аграрный центр<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">North Caucasus Federal Agricultural Research Centre<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru">Научно‐исследовательский институт сельского хозяйства Крыма<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Crimea Research Institute of Agriculture<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2019</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>10</day><month>10</month><year>2019</year></pub-date><volume>14</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>101</fpage><lpage>110</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Катков К.А., Скорых Л.Н., Паштецкий В.С., Остапчук П.С., Куевда Т.А., 2019</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2019</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Катков К.А., Скорых Л.Н., Паштецкий В.С., Остапчук П.С., Куевда Т.А.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Katkov K.A., Skorykh L.N., Pashtetsky V.S., Ostapchuk P.S., Kuevda T.A.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://ecodag.elpub.ru/ugro/article/view/1706">https://ecodag.elpub.ru/ugro/article/view/1706</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Цель</title><p>Цель. Традиционно прогноз племенной оценки производителей мелкого рогатого скота по значениям хозяйственно полезных признаков их потомков ведется  методами статистического анализа. В то же время существует метод прогнозирования на основе использования смешанной биометрической модели. Решение системы уравнений, которая описывает смешанную биометрическую модель, связано с определенными трудностями , обусловленными особенностью  матрицы  системы.  Предлагается  в  прогнозе  использовать  интегрированные  математические пакеты, где система уравнений решается несколькими способами с последующим анализом результатов . Представляет интерес сравнение  оценок, полученных с использованием статистических методов, и оценок с помощью смешанной биометрической модели.   </p></sec><sec><title>Материал и методы</title><p>Материал и методы. Исходными данными являлись значения живой массы  баранчиков  цигайской  породы  –  потомков  группы  из  16  барановпроизводителей,  принадлежащих  к  восьми  генетическим  группам.  Прогноз  племенной оценки проводится с помощью статистических методов с использованием трех статистических тестов, а также с использованием смешанной биометрической модели.   </p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты.  Установлено ,  что  прогноз  племенной  оценки  производителей  с  помощью смешанной биометрической модели существенно уточняет ранг каждого производителя в оцениваемой группе.   </p></sec><sec><title>Заключение</title><p>Заключение. Выявленное уточнение прогноза племенной ценности связано с  учетом в смешанной модели эффектов генетических групп, к которым принадлежат производители, а также степенью родства между ними. Также, смешанная модель позволяет вычленить из общей оценки эффекты окружающей среды. Решение системы уравнений несколькими способами позволит повысить  достоверность полученного прогноза.  </p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Aim</title><p>Aim. Traditionally, prediction of breeding values of male small horned ruminants   (rams) by referring to levels of economically useful traits of their progeny is carried  out by methods of statistical analysis. However, at the same time, there is a forecasting method based on the use of a mixed biometric model. The solution of the system  of equations constituting a mixed biometric model is associated with certain difficulties caused by the peculiarity of the system matrix. It is proposed to use integrated  mathematical packages in the forecast, by which the system of equations can be  solved in several ways, followed by analysis of the results. The prediction of progeny  values is carried out by statistical methods using three statistical tests, as well as with  the use of a mixed biometric model. It is of interest to compare estimates obtained  by using statistical methods with estimates using a mixed biometric model. </p></sec><sec><title>Material and Methods</title><p>Material and Methods. The initial data set was the live weight of Qigai rams, the  progeny of a group of sixteen rams belonging to eight genetic groups.   Results. It was found that the forecast of breeding values of each animal using a  mixed biometric model substantially clarifies the rank of each animal in the group  being evaluated.   </p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>Conclusion. The refinement of the estimation of breeding value is related to the  effects of the genetic groups to which the animals belong in the mixed model, as well  as the degree of relationship between them. Also the mixed model also allows one to  isolate environmental effects from the overall assessment. Solving the system of  equations in several ways will improve the reliability of the forecast.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>племенная оценка</kwd><kwd>смешанная биометрическая модель</kwd><kwd>статистический анализ</kwd><kwd>матрица превосходства</kwd><kwd>достоверность различий</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>tribal assessment</kwd><kwd>mixed biometric model</kwd><kwd>statistical analysis</kwd><kwd>matrix of excellence</kwd><kwd>significance of differences</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Deniskova T.E., Dotsev A.V., Traspov A.A., Brem G., Zinovieva N.A., Selionova M.I., Kunz E., Medugorac I., Reyer H., Wimmers K., Barbato M. Population structure and genetic diversity of 25 russian sheep breeds based on wholegenome genotyping // Genetics, Selection, Evolution. 2018. V. 50. N 1. P. 29‐34. 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